|
SWEDEN |
| 26/04/06 |
Intelligence
Brief |
|
FORECAST
FOR THE NATIONAL ELECTION 2006 |
RIKSDAG
ELECTION
2002:
|
Below please find the final
result for the Riksdag election. The figures comprise the whole country. |
|
| Name of party |
Percentage* |
Difference from
last election
|
No of seats |
Moderate Party
(M)
|
15, 2 % |
- 7, 7 % |
55 (5)** |
Centre Party
(C)
|
6, 1 % |
+ 1, 1 % |
22 (6)** |
Liberal Party
(FP)
|
13, 3 % |
+ 8, 7 % |
48 (4)** |
Christian Democrats
(KD)
|
9, 1 % |
- 2, 6 % |
33 (4)** |
Social Democrats
(S)
|
39, 8 % |
+ 3, 5 % |
144 (2)** |
Left Party
(V)
|
8, 3 % |
- 3, 6 % |
30 (17)** |
Green Party
(MP)
|
4, 6 % |
+ 0, 1 % |
17 (11)** |
Norrbotten
County Party
(NBP)
|
0, 2 % |
-- |
-- |
Other parties
(OVR)
|
2, 8 % |
+ 0, 3 % |
-- |
|
|
|
* The results are given with
one decimal, which creates a discrepancy of 0, 6 %.
** of which adjustment seats
Election participation: 80, 1 % (-1, 3 %)
Number of the ones entitled to vote (Riksdag election): 6 722 152
|
|
EP
ELECTION
2004:
|
Summary of the final results
of the Swedish election to the European Parliament held on June 13,
2004. |
|
| Name of party |
Percentage |
No of votes |
No of seats |
Difference last EP election
|
Moderate Party
(M)
|
18,25 % |
458 398 |
4 |
-1 |
Centre Party
(C) |
6,26 % |
157 258 |
1 |
0 |
Liberal Party
(FP) |
9,86 % |
247 750 |
2 |
-1 |
Christian Democrats
(KD) |
5,68 % |
142 704 |
1 |
-1 |
Social Democrats
(S) |
24,56 % |
616 963 |
5 |
-1 |
Left Party
(V) |
12,79 % |
321 344 |
2 |
-1 |
Green Party
(MP) |
5,96 % |
149 603 |
1 |
-1 |
June List
(JL) |
14,47 % |
363 472 |
3 |
+3 |
Sweden Democrats
(SD) |
1,13 % |
28 303 |
-- |
-- |
Other parties
(OVR) |
1,05 % |
26 274 |
-- |
-- |
|
|
|
Election participation: 37,85
% (2 584 464)
Number of persons entitled to vote: 6 827 870
|
| POLITICAL: |
Since the Swedes turned the
Euro currency down in a referendum in September 2003, EU politics
have become more polarized.
Most political parties have experienced internal splits over their
European policies, with the result that members and supporters are
likely to react with apathy and drive the turnout further down in
the last European Parliament elections.
Sweden was surprised when the turnout in the 1999-European elections
was as low as 37,85% - much lower than in national elections.
The centre-left Swedish Social Democrats are presenting a very pro-EU
face in the last European Parliament elections with no-one critical
of the EU placed high enough to have a chance of getting elected.
But half the social democrat supporters are opposed to the Euro, so
the ruling party risks losing out to a combination of apathy and anti-EU
parties.
Leader of the Social Democratic Party and prime minister since 1996,
Goran Persson has kept a firm grip on his government and on most policy
issues. However, his popularity ratings plummeted in early 2005, following
severe public criticism of the government's handling of the Asian
tsunami disaster. Just over a half a year before the next election,
combined support for Goran Persson's minority government and its allies,
the Left and Green parties, is at its lowest for a decade.
Goran Hagglund faced an unenviable task when he succeeded Alf Svensson
as leader of the Christian Democrats in April 2004. Svensson had been
at the helm since 1973, and was very popular with large parts of the
electorate. Hagglund, in contrast, was virtually unknown to the public
when he took charge. Politically, Hagglund's leadership has so far
been characterized by continuity. He is firmly committed to the four-party
opposition bloc and its attempt to unseat the government at the 2006
election. However, he has found it difficult to establish himself
with the public, and the party remains dangerously close to the 4%
representational threshold.
|
|
| FINANCIAL: |
Sweden has weathered the global
economic turndown comparatively well and continues to outpace the
Eurozone. GDP growth is around 3.3% in 2005. Open unemployment is
now at 5.5%, lower than many European countries. In Sweden taxes are
higher, benefits more generous, and the labor market more highly regulated
than in many EU countries. The Central Bank is independent.
Timber, pulp and paper, iron ore, copper and uranium has provided
the basis for Swedish economic growth since the 1920s. Success in
manufacturing then followed, with companies such as Volvo, Saab,
Electrolux and Ericsson becoming internationally known household
names.
Nowdays Sweden is making progress in the IT sector. PC and mobile
phone ownership are all among the highest per capita in Europe.
The Internet revolution created a new generation of entrepreneurs
in the late 1990s, and this is already having an impact on the Swedish
economy. Mainly, based in the Stockholm metropolitan region, graduates
who just a few years ago would have chosen a job in one of the leading
Swedish multinationals are taking advantage of the opportunities
created by the Internet. This has created a cluster of information
technology (IT) companies, making Stockholm one of the leading locations
for IT business worldwide. This trend, which has created a large
number of millionaires in a relatively brief period of time, represents
a break with the past, when high incomes and personal wealth were
seen as irreconcilable with the social welfare state.
The Swedish government owns 43,5% of TeliaSonera. The semi-state
owned company has big business interests in Russia; the company
owns 44% of Megafon, Russia's third-largest mobile operator. Nevertheless,
TeliaSonera might have to sell its stake and leave Russian telecom
market when Christian Democrats will be elected to Riksdag in 2006.
This has been threatened by Maria Larsson, the first vice-chairman
of the party. Larsson claimed that the SEK 700 million, which TeliaSonera
paid has ended up not with the Russian state as it should have.
Christian Democrats admit that any evidence of wrongdoing on the
part of the Swedish government or TeliaSonera could not be found,
but they openly admit that they have been helped by people close
to Russian Alfa Group. "We have asked them to assist us in
collecting some of the public documents," - said Maria Larsson.
Additionally, the idea of privatization of state property with
which Christian Democrats run in the elections of 2006 is posing
most danger for the economy of Sweden.
|
| EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: |
Generally the political parties
that are said to be against the European Union get higher results
in the European parliamentary elections than they get in the elections
to the Swedish parliament. This is why Left Party and Greens got a
significantly higher percentage in the European elections. There is
also a tendency to punish the parties in government. Both these reasons
account for the poor performance of Social Democrats.
In the 2002 election, in order to win over Social Democrats, Moderate
Party suggested a coalitional government between Liberal Party, Christian
Democrats and Center Party with a grand allowing them to form a minority
coalition government. This proposal collapsed because of differing
opinions among the parties.
Social Democrats suggested a coalition between Left Party and Green
Party with a grand allowing them to create a majority coalitional
government. This proposal collapsed because the party's leader Goran
Persson refused to give Left Party or Green Party any minister posts.
The disadvantage of coalitional governments is that occasionally the
parties involved may conflict on many issues. The advantage of such
coalitions is that when they come to certain agreements; they are
unlikely to be overruled.
|
Copyright 2006 by
S.J. Rundt & Associates, Inc.
|
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130 East
63rd Street
New York, New York 10021 |
Tel: (973) 731-7502
Fax: (973) 731-7503 |
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